GLENDALE, Ariz. — Unable to return from his second Tommy John surgery in time to contribute to the major-league club last season, Walker Buehler’s final Instagram post of 2023 shouldn’t have come as much of a surprise.
The photo on Dec. 31 depicted the fiery two-time All-Star sitting in the Dodgers‘ dugout flipping the bird to the camera. “Here’s to 2023,” the caption read. “See y’all in 2024.”
Better times, Buehler and the Dodgers hope, are on the horizon.
What lies ahead will be one of the most fascinating contract years of any prospective 2025 free-agent pitcher.
Now 29 years old, Buehler has not pitched in a major-league game since June 2022. He might not again until May or June of this year. An exact timeline for return is not etched in stone. Knowing he would have some sort of innings limit this year, the decision was made to delay the start of Buehler’s season so that he wouldn’t have to start and stop at some point in the middle of the year. Once he gets going, he wants to keep going, and he would rather be available in September and October than March and April.
“The way we have it structured in our heads was kind of what I wanted to do,” Buehler said. “I want to be ready at the end of the year. If that means I can’t be ready at the beginning, then that’s kind of the option or the choice we have to make. Everything that’s been written about me is that it’s not going well, and I don’t think that’s true. There’s just boxes I’ve got to check, and I feel good about it.”
At his best, Buehler is a rotation headliner armed with the stuff and the moxie to handle the game’s highest-pressure moments.
But it has been 18 months since his surgery in August 2022 to address his UCL and his flexor tendon, 20 months since he last appeared in a regular-season game and more than two years since he was playing at his typical form.
“Your first Tommy John, it’s kind of known, 12 months,” Buehler said. “Second one, there’s not as many examples.”
Still, despite the short list of pitchers who have returned to form after a second elbow reconstruction — a group that includes reigning World Series champion Nathan Eovaldi — Buehler was undeterred last year as he set his sights on a September 2023 return. The timeline seemed highly unlikely to almost everyone other than Buehler, who defied what most thought possible when he took the mound for a rehab start at Triple-A on Sept. 3, 2023.
He touched 96 mph while tossing two scoreless innings in that outing at Oklahoma City. Suddenly, his desire to help the Dodgers in some capacity before season’s end didn’t seem so far-fetched.
But that was his last start of the year.
He wasn’t bouncing back the way he wanted, and with time slipping away, Buehler and the Dodgers decided it was best to shut it down and shift attention toward 2024.
“You go and pitch in a game, and everything’s kind of close to what you want to feel, and the next couple days it’s just not right,” Buehler told FOX Sports. “Kind of realized quickly that you’re not 23 years old anymore.”
It doesn’t feel long ago that Buehler, as a 23-year-old rookie starter in 2018, was making his name as one of baseball’s rising stars.
It was then that the former first-round pick out of Vanderbilt began developing a penchant for clutch performances, starting with his 6.2 scoreless innings in a tiebreaker Game 163 to win the division for the Dodgers. Later that season, Buehler was given the ball in Game 7 of the NLCS and pitched the Dodgers to the World Series, where he threw seven scoreless innings in his lone start of the series.
The Dodgers didn’t win a championship that year, but they found their big-game pitcher.
Buehler compiled a 1.43 ERA with 54 strikeouts in 37.2 innings over his next seven playoff starts in 2019 and 2020. He kept the Dodgers’ championship season alive with six scoreless innings in Game 6 of the NLCS before recording a playoff career-high 10 strikeouts in Game 3 of the 2020 World Series.
The next season, he zeroed in on consistency and reliability. He wanted to clear 200 innings for the first time in his career, and he did, leading the majors with 33 starts while going 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA and finishing fourth in Cy Young Award voting. But it might have come at a cost.
That postseason, he lacked the same swing-and-miss stuff while attempting to pitch on short rest for the first time in his career.
A year later, he looked out of sorts.
His fastball lacked its usual life early in the 2022 season. He felt like he was in constant search of his mechanics. Buehler logged a 4.02 ERA across 12 starts when his arm finally prevented him from continuing further.
Was he in pain throughout that time?
“He won’t admit it,” general manager Brandon Gomes said, “but I’m sure a pretty good amount.”
“You never know, kind of chicken or the egg — if something was going on, or whatever, and that’s why I couldn’t get the feelings that I wanted,” Buehler explained to FOX Sports, “or if I ended up getting hurt because I was throwing not the way I’m supposed to.”
While Buehler said he never felt right in 2022, he also claims he didn’t feel anything in his elbow until his final start of the year in San Francisco.
Initially, he was placed on the injured list for a flexor strain. Since he was looking at an extended absence anyway, he also had surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow. But a sharpness in his elbow persisted. A follow-up MRI was inconclusive. Eventually, it was determined that Buehler would need some type of season-ending procedure. It wasn’t until Dr. Neal ElAttrache actually went in that the worst-case scenario became the determined course of action.
Now, the road back from a second Tommy John surgery has taken longer than Buehler would have hoped. Given the lengthy hiatus, Buehler had built up a “little anticipation of being underwhelmed” when he checked the radar gun over the past year.
“You want to be one of those guys that’s able to do all the stuff that they used to be able to do, and I think there’s a lot of fear that happens during rehab in terms of throwing and how it feels and all that,” Buehler told FOX Sports. “A lot of guys come back throwing 92, 93 [mph], and can still pitch in the big leagues and whatnot, but it’s not 98. I think a lot of that is that fear of, ‘Well, I need to make these throws, and they might hurt, and that’s OK.’ So you kind of take a few months, take a little step back and realize that you’re trying to get the best people in the world out, and if you can’t hammer the throttle, then you’re going to have a tough time doing it. So, I feel like I’m a lot closer 1709509439 to being able to let a lot of balls go.”
Buehler estimated he spent about 90 percent of his time last year in Arizona rehabbing, making occasional trips home to Kentucky as well as long weekend visits to Los Angeles to check in at the stadium. He found different ways to distract himself and pass the time, from playing golf, to going to the Kentucky Derby, to making weekly podcast appearances.
“That’s fun, but nothing’s going to be the same,” Buehler said. “There’s no outlet like playing in the major leagues.”
Buehler was back at home last postseason when the Dodgers’ rotation — which was missing Buehler, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Julio Urías — allowed 13 earned runs in just 4.2 playoff innings in a second straight stunning NLDS defeat.
Two months later, Buehler returned to Los Angeles. The shutdown seemed to help. When he started ramping back up, he noticed a different level of intensity that he didn’t think he had at the end of last season. Even throwing on flat ground at Dodger Stadium this offseason, Gomes noticed a different zip to Buehler’s throws.
“It’s like, ‘OK, that’s Walker,'” Gomes said. “His delivery, his body, the confidence in just how he’s feeling overall, is just really positive.”
If all goes to plan, Buehler won’t need to sit out a third straight postseason.
After sitting 92-94 mph when he returned to his bullpen sessions in early February, his velocity shot up to 94-95 while facing hitters for the first time last week. He’s still looking for more top-end velo, but it represented a positive development.
“For me, it’s more just the body, getting that kind of pop back in the body,” Buehler told reporters. “It’s kind of hard to explain, but you get through rehab and you’re kind of trying to protect the arm for forever and make sure it doesn’t hurt. And then it feels good, so you throw with all arm, so now I’m trying to get them to kind of work together. [Tuesday] was definitely kind of a step forward in terms of that.”
As he attempts to recapture his playing form, he does so in a different physical form. By the start of February, Buehler, who has never weighed more than 185 pounds in the big leagues, said he was checking in around 205. He hopes the added weight will help protect his elbow.
From a competitive standpoint, though, he looks the same — as evidenced by the expletives he shouts, whether on a mound or playing ping-pong in the Dodgers’ clubhouse. After a year and a half of harnessing that emotion, he will have to stay patient for at least a bit longer.
Buehler knows the depth the Dodgers added should allow him to take his time. They made Yoshinobu Yamamoto the highest-paid pitcher in the sport, traded for Tyler Glasnow and added James Paxton. Bobby Miller is coming off a breakout rookie year, and young starters Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove are all capable of rounding out a rotation until players such as Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and potentially May are able to return at some point later this year.
The Dodgers have the pieces to stay afloat early. But the return of Buehler could make a massive difference late.
“I’m walking into a year where we just made probably the most historic additions to one team in one offseason that’s ever been done,” Buehler said. “To get to be a part of that and hopefully pitch good enough that I get to stick around here, obviously it’s my free-agent year and whatnot, but at the end of the day I just want to play and be good again, and that other stuff is kind of the other stuff.”
Next winter, Buehler is set to be part of a 2025 class of pitchers that could include the likes of Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, Max Fried and Shane Bieber. Where Buehler fits on that list, and the payday that awaits, will be determined over the coming months.
For now, though, after missing nearly two years, it’s easier to focus on the first step.
“I still haven’t gotten to pitch in a major-league game since two Junes ago,” Buehler said. “So, I think the other stuff kind of fades, at least for a while, right? Honestly, I probably won’t think too much about it until it happens. But I obviously love it here and love our team, so we’ll see what happens.”
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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