Because Trump hasn’t been present, most of these debates haven’t gotten much attention beyond hardcore political circles. But any nationally televised stage is an opportunity for a candidate to have a breakout moment. And the race for second place in Iowa is more interesting than the race for first.
So here’s what to watch for in this final debate before the Iowa caucuses.
DeSantis has his back against a wall
Trump is expected to win the Iowa caucuses. DeSantis has struggled so much in his campaign that he needs to come in very close to Trump to have a path forward in the presidential race, many Republicans say.
“To the extent there are stakes,” said Republican strategist Sarah Longwell, “the stakes are that if Nikki Haley comes in second in Iowa, I’m not saying that Ron DeSantis’s career is over, but it is going into a deep-freeze coma and may never return.”
Added Craig Robinson, the former political director of Iowa’s Republican Party: “DeSantis needs a clear, strong victory over Nikki Haley. If he gets that, he has life. If he doesn’t get that, I think he’s dead and he’ll be out of the race.”
The debate will illuminate those dynamics and help answer this question: How does DeSantis perform when it’s do or die?
Haley can be more relaxed. Most Republicans have placed higher expectations on her in the next state to vote, New Hampshire, and then the next, South Carolina, which is her home state.
Don’t expect anyone to go after Trump in a real way
The opportunity to attack Trump in a manner that could hurt his poll numbers has long since passed. The Haley and DeSantis campaigns made a strategic decision months ago not to seriously attack him. “That essentially baked the cake months ago that Trump would win,” Republican strategist Doug Heye said.
Haley has sort of started going after Trump lately, but her critics note that it is in the passive voice, rather than attributing an action to Trump. (“Chaos follows” him, Haley has said of Trump.)
DeSantis and Haley have spent more time and money attacking each other in Iowa. And that will probably hold true for Wednesday’s debate.
Which is perplexing to many strategists, because if Haley and DeSantis want to be president, they need find a way to bring down the guy who is an average 50 percentage points ahead of them in polling.
Who is watching this anymore?
Trump’s lead in the presidential primary is incomparable, at least by modern-day standards. His lead is almost insurmountable in Iowa and in other early voting states. (He has a 65-point lead over his competitors in Nevada, an Emerson College poll found.) His campaign says it hopes to have the nomination wrapped up by March, despite the fact that voting will extend into June.
And lest any other candidate comes close to Trump, he has been masterful at stealing the headlines. This week as candidates were campaigning in Iowa, he appeared in court in D.C. to listen to arguments about whether he should be immune from prosecution, drawing a lot of attention to that case.
And Trump is participating in a Fox News town hall airing at the same time as the debate — so he gets his say, uninterrupted and unchallenged.