How soon could Trump have the nomination wrapped up?

The last time the nominee in a competitive primary was evident so quickly was in 2004. In recent elections, the primary in both parties has been drawn out until May or even June.

Trump is on track to win the Republican presidential nomination mathematically, by securing enough delegates to be the party’s nominee, and politically, by having everyone assume there are no viable competitors left who can beat him.

Here’s how quickly he could win — and what could go wrong for him.

Mathematically, Trump needs to win 1,215 delegates

There are 2,429 delegates awarded in the Republican primary. To secure the nomination, a candidate needs to win 1,215 delegates, which is exactly one more than half of the total.

So far, only 62 have been awarded, but half of them have gone to Trump.

“If you look at the calendar and the number of delegates awarded, the earliest time mathematically someone could get to 1,215 is March 12,” said Nicole Schlinger, an Iowa-based Republican consultant.

But that would require winning every single delegate, and not even Trump can wrap up the nomination that quickly. That’s because in many states, the second-place winner gets delegates, too.

For example, South Carolina Republicans will award all their 50 delegates to the winner. But Iowa and New Hampshire have a proportional system. Iowa gave 20 of its 40 delegates to Trump because he got about half of the vote in last week’s caucus. In New Hampshire, Trump won more than 50 percent of the vote and got 11 of the state’s 22 delegates.

So the likelier outcome for Haley is that by staying in the race, she just delays Trump’s win.

Trump’s campaign predicted before voting even began that he could win the nomination by March, especially with a strong performance on Super Tuesday, March 5, which is when nearly 900 delegates in more than a dozen states are awarded.

Tracking the 2024 Republican delegate count

Politically, Trump may have already won the nomination

It could soon get harder for Haley to credibly argue she should stay in the race. She didn’t win what may be the friendliest primary state to her on the calendar.

“This is it, this is her only shot,” said Republican strategist Sarah Longwell, speaking of Haley in the New Hampshire primary before the results were in. “She has to win in New Hampshire for there to be any race.”

“It’s not mathematically over by any stretch,” said Doug Heye, a Republican strategist, “but politically it could be over pretty quickly.”

Other Republican strategists think Haley could make it a race if she comes within a few percentage points of Trump in New Hampshire, then a similar margin in South Carolina’s primary at the end of February, and on and on. But at some point, she has to start winning states to overtake Trump in the delegate count. Her time could be running out.

“She can hang around until Super Tuesday,” one strategist said. “After that, she’s done.”

Why Haley might stay in the race even if she can’t win

Haley could have donors urging her to stay in the race for several just-in-case reasons. Because as anti-climactic as this primary seems, it could take some wild, unprecedented turns.

Trump has got quite a few legal perils ahead. He could be on trial in the spring, during the busiest part of the primary season, on dozens of felony charges, some of them related to his efforts to hold on to power after losing the 2020 election. Some polls suggest a conviction for election-related crimes could turn off some of his voters, but a conviction probably won’t come during the primary season.

He’s also 77, which would make him the second-oldest American president ever, and he has had a few mental slip-ups lately — all the more magnified given his attacks on President Biden’s age. Trump appears to be in good health, but both he and Biden are old enough that their mental and physical fitness is of concern to voters (although Biden’s more so than Trump’s).

And the Supreme Court could weigh in any day now on whether Trump can be on a ballot at all, given his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

All of this could prompt the kind of seismic shift in the Republican field that Haley needs to win. But as one Republican strategist put it, hope is not a great campaign strategy.