There is very little mystery left in the 2024 presidential nominating contests, rendering Super Tuesday today somewhat less than super interesting. But as I like to think Donald H. Rumsfeld might have said if he were a journalist, you write newsletters with the campaign you have, not the campaign you want.
And if I’m being optimistic, Super Tuesday at least promises uncertainty. Such is the case when you have 15 states and one territory voting — and very few quality polls.
So which ones are we watching?
The main question on the GOP side is whether Nikki Haley can continue pulling significant votes — or whether the party will start embracing Trump more as the contest wears on. If she has any designs on pressing forward, she needs something.
These are the four states I’d keep an eye on:
- Massachusetts features the closest poll of any Super Tuesday state, with a month-old Suffolk University survey showing Trump winning 55 percent to 38 percent. But other, lower-quality surveys are more lopsided. And in 2016, Massachusetts was actually Trump’s best Super Tuesday state.
- Vermont was one of Trump’s worst states in both the 2016 and 2020 primaries — the latter year involving a sleepy primary challenge from former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld. (Weld’s other best states? Massachusetts and New Hampshire, Haley’s best state so far.)
- Utah is very conservative and is holding caucuses, which should help Trump. But Trump’s relationship with Mormon Republicans has always been a bit awkward. Mormon leaders last week put out a very interesting statement urging voters to support candidates “who have demonstrated integrity, ability and service to others, regardless of party affiliation.” Some interpreted that as a dig at Trump.
- Virginia. Haley just won the Washington, D.C., primary — her first victory — and voters in neighboring Northern Virginia should give her a base of support. She’s also made multiple campaign stops in the state. A Roanoke College poll last week showed Trump overwhelmingly winning Republicans in the state, but a much closer race if you include other voters.
‘Uncommitted,’ Part 2
Thirteen percent of Michigan Democratic primary voters last week picked “uncommitted” over President Biden, amid an effort to turn that option into a protest vote over Biden’s policy on the war in Gaza.
Now, there appears to be two Super Tuesday states — Minnesota and Colorado — where such efforts have been most out in the open. (Activists have also keyed on Washington state’s March 12 primary.)
Minnesota features a significant Muslim population and typically has one of the highest turnout rates in the country. Casual voters who aren’t enthused about Biden might be persuaded to pick that “uncommitted” option.
Colorado also has some very liberal pockets. Its state Democratic Party in December moved to add a “noncommitted delegate” option in hopes of increasing youth turnout.
Another moment you may have missed
Trump likes to blame Haley for sticking around and dividing the party. But Trump isn’t exactly Mr. Gracious Winner these days.
Repeatedly now, Trump and his campaign have set about score-settling and rather needless infighting at a time when it might behoove them to build bridges. To wit:
- Trump last month warned anyone who donated to Haley would be “permanently barred” from his orbit.
- Trump’s campaign broke out the knives while responding to relatively mild criticisms from Ron DeSantis.
- Politico reported Friday that Trump’s campaign warned D.C.-based lobbyists that they wouldn’t get access if they didn’t vote in Sunday’s GOP primary.
- Trump over the weekend said of Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) not supporting him: “We’re getting rid of the Romneys of the world. We want to get Romneys and — those out.” (The comments called to mind Kari Lake attacking the late John McCain during the 2022 Arizona governor’s race. A study later showed Lake lost a potentially decisive number of Republican voters in the general election.)
- In the same remarks, Trump said the MAGA wing of the party was “96 percent and maybe 100 percent” of the party.
In fact, Fox News/AP voter analyses in Iowa and South Carolina showed 6 in 10 GOP primary voters identified as supporters of the MAGA movement. It was about half in New Hampshire.
Trump needs those other voters too. But apparently the charm offensive will have to wait.
A momentous — and telling — poll
When it comes to explaining Trump’s apparent strength against Biden in early general election polls, I keep coming back to the inexorable march of time. Former presidents are almost always regarded more positively once they’re out of office. Why wouldn’t Trump benefit from this dynamic, at least somewhat?
And a couple new poll findings reinforced how this might indeed be helping Trump.
A CBS News/YouGov poll showed that 46 percent of voters say Trump did an excellent or very good job as president, and nearly half said he did at least a “somewhat good” job on covid.
Why are those tallies notable? Because they’re higher than such numbers were when he was actually president.
Trump’s approval rating throughout his four years in office was only briefly above the low 40s.
As for covid? Polls showed his numbers gradually falling as the pandemic wore on; by September 2020, just 37 percent said he was doing a good job in a Monmouth University poll, versus 56 percent who said he was doing a bad job.
Once Trump was out of office, 63 percent said he had done a bad job. Today, this new poll showed just more than 4 in 10 say the same.