Two new polls released Tuesday morning tell pretty different tales about how likely New Hampshire is to assist her.
A CNN-University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll showed Haley creeping to within single digits of Trump, 39 percent to 32 percent. A Boston Globe-USA Today-Suffolk University poll, meanwhile, showed she trails by 20 points, 46-26.
So which might be closer to the mark? And what do they suggest about what lies ahead?
The first thing to note is that both polls show Haley gaining. The CNN poll has Haley shrinking her deficit from 22 points in November to seven points today. The Suffolk poll has her shrinking it from 30 points in late September to 20 points today.
The CNN poll has long indicated that Trump’s support in New Hampshire is softer than what other polls have shown, so its tightening looks more pronounced.
Beyond that, there are a couple key differences in the CNN and Suffolk polls.
One difference is in voters who aren’t registered Republicans — a vital demographic that Haley needs to own, given Trump’s huge advantage among registered Republicans. While the CNN poll shows Haley leading among them by 26 points (43-17), the Suffolk poll shows her lead at just half that (36-23).
The biggest difference, though, is education. While the CNN poll has Haley trailing by just 15 points (46-31) among voters with a high school education or less, the Suffolk poll shows Trump with a massive 70-point lead (80-10) among those voters.
This is significant because Trump often excels with less formally educated voters. It’s difficult to compare New Hampshire to other states or the national polls given its unusual electorate. But if Haley is keeping it as close with these voters as the CNN poll suggests, that would be remarkable. (And they are a large chunk of the poll, accounting for 37 percent of the sample.)
To the extent that the CNN poll does reflect reality, it could be particularly heartening for Haley.
In addition to showing her trimming her deficit to single digits, it also shows both her and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie (12 percent) combining for more votes than Trump. It’s the first high-quality poll to make such a finding.
Christie has thus far rejected suggestions that he might make way for Haley in the name of trying to defeat Trump. But such comments are to be expected; you don’t signal you might drop out while you’re still hoping to compete. And Christie has criticized Trump more harshly than any other candidate, signaling early on that his campaign was about stopping Trump.
The CNN poll suggests that if Christie were to bow out, it would almost certainly bolster Haley further and possibly even allow her to compete for the win in the Granite State.
Christie draws his support almost exclusively from those who aren’t registered Republicans (taking 23 percent of them) and moderates (26 percent) and left-leaning voters (40 percent), compared to almost no support among registered Republicans or conservatives. Previous UNH Survey Center polling suggested Christie’s base overwhelmingly voted for Biden in the 2020 general election. Haley is the clear home for those voters if Christie is no longer an option and they still vote in the GOP primary.
Trump could also benefit if Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) or Vivek Ramaswamy don’t make it to New Hampshire, given how much their bases overlap with his. DeSantis has become something of a nonfactor in New Hampshire, taking just 8 percent in the Suffolk poll and 5 percent in the CNN poll (which shows him in fifth place behind Ramaswamy). And it’s plausible that their voters wouldn’t go as strongly for Trump as Christie’s would go for Haley, given that these are voters who have so far declined to back the presumptive nominee.
What’s clear from the new polls is that, while Iowa’s caucuses are next week, New Hampshire the following week is the ballgame, at least in the first two states. How competitive that ballgame will be — and whether Haley could actually reshape the race if she gets the outcome she needs — is to be determined.