Best NFC, AFC conference title game prop bets, picks: How to bet Mahomes, Kelce

NFL conference championship weekend matchups are set. This means we bettors have just two more weeks of the NFL season to place some winning wagers. 

The Kansas City Chiefs travel to face the Baltimore Ravens for the AFC Championship game and then the huge game on FOX and FOX Sports App is the showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and the Detroit Lions.

Even though there are only two games, there are plenty of opportunities to get in on some prop bets. This is where I come in.

Check out these prop wagers I like for the conference championship games.

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports app)

Brandon Aiyuk receiving yards Over/Under 79.5 yards

Detroit’s pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL. 

The Lions allowed 147 yards to Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans. That divisional round contest against the Buccaneers marked the fifth-straight game the Lions allowed at least 140 yards to one receiver. 

I’m going to wager on that trend continuing. It’s clear teams have figured out ways for their best receiver to find open space against Detroit. 

On a more positive note for the Lions, they do score points. So ultimately, opposing offenses have to push the ball downfield and keep scoring if they want to keep up.

PICK: Brandon Aiyuk Over 79.5 receiving yards

Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over/Under 14.5 yards

San Francisco’s run defense is 26th in expected points added and opponents have taken advantage of that lately. The Lions are 10th in rushing EPA and fifth in yards per rush, so this is a good spot for Detroit.

Both of the Lions’ running backs — Gibbs and David Montgomery — averaged over 4.6 yards per attempt during the regular season.

The 49ers have allowed five running backs in their last four games to have an explosive rush of over 16 yards. The way the Lions scheme their running game plus the explosive nature of Gibbs’ running style means that Gibbs’ longest rush could very well be over 14.5 yards.

PICK: Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 14.5 yards

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens (3 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Travis Kelce receptions — Over/Under 5.5

I had Kelce Over 5.5 receptions against the Buffalo Bills, and he finished with just five. 

Yes, those five catches were crucial because he converted multiple first downs and scored two touchdowns. But “only” five receptions against a beat-up Buffalo back seven is a tad alarming considering the Chiefs now have to face the Ravens’ outstanding linebacker and safety group.

Baltimore has defenders who can run with Kelce, especially now that the tight end has clearly lost a step this season. 

Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald will take away Kelce as a first option for Patrick Mahomes. It’s also worth noting that Kelce is not the every-down player he has been in the past now that he’s reached the ripe age of 34. Now, after a big catch, he tends to find himself on the sideline for a few plays. 

I don’t expect him to be a high volume pass catcher on Sunday.

PICK: Travis Kelce Under 5.5 receptions 

Patrick Mahomes rushing attempts — Over/Under 4.5

Mahomes will need to make plays with his legs for the Chiefs to win. 

The Ravens have an elite pass rush, so Mahomes will have opportunities to scramble because of the pressure. There’s often no one to cover the quarterback if he’s on the move. 

I also expect Kansas City’s passing game to struggle at times against Baltimore’s secondary. If receivers are not open, Mahomes will be forced out of the pocket to try to create yards.

Also, any kneel downs by a quarterback count toward rushing attempts. Give me the over.

PICK: Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 rushing attempts 

Zay Flowers receptions — Over/Under 4.5

Kansas City’s defense just doesn’t allow the No. 1 receiver many chances to catch the football. 

In the Chiefs’ last four games, they allowed Stefon Diggs to catch four, Tyreek Hill five, Ja’Marr Chase three and Davante Adams just one.

Why? L’Jarius Sneed, Kansas City’s No. 1 cornerback. 

Sneed has allowed only one touchdown all season (to Hill), and when facing Diggs last weekend, he allowed one catch on 25 one-on-one matchups. He’s going to shut down Flowers

PICK: Zay Flowers Under 4.5 receptions 

Lamar Jackson rushing yards — Over/Under 63.5

Kansas City has an excellent pass defense and the Chiefs will take away Jackson’s ability to use his arm so he will resort to running the football when the pass game struggles. 

Plus, the Chiefs rushing defense is without some interior linemen and possibly one of their linebackers in Willie Gay, and that’s not going to be helpful in trying to stop Jackson. 

Kansas City’s defense tends to allow mobile quarterbacks to escape the pocket with poor rush lanes. Joe Burrow and Josh Allen have routinely run the ball well against the Chiefs in the postseason. I expect Jackson to run it well on Sunday.

PICK: Lamar Jackson Over 63.5 rushing yards

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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