Record winter storm upends plans in final Iowa caucus stretch

And the state Republican Party that had promised record turnout is now tamping down expectations given record low temperatures expected Monday.

After months of planning for any inevitability ahead of Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucus Monday, Mother Nature has already wreaked havoc on carefully set schedules in the final stretch as meteorologists warn of blizzard, whiteout conditions followed by a record-breaking cold snap and extreme wind chills. The National Weather Service called this weekend’s storm “life-threatening” and “fairly rare with recurrence around once or twice per decade.”

The weather has already grounded flights, stranded reporters and consultants and caused an internal flurry in campaigns sending out updated advisories and monitoring conditions. On Friday, three days before the caucus, several in-person Trump events scheduled for the weekend were canceled, including one event on Friday featuring surrogate and Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake, Haley’s events were moved online, and events by a PAC supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis were scrapped, too. Meanwhile, the major question looming over the next several days is whether caucus day turnout might be, well, chilled.

Campaigns, candidates and strategists have speculated how much the winter weather will have an impact — with some estimating it could undermine Trump, who caucus-goers might feel complacent will win anyway. Others say it would hurt DeSantis or Haley, who trail behind Trump in Iowa poll by a wide double-digit margin. Each candidate has argued their supporters are passionate enough to leave the warmth and safety of their homes to drive to their precinct, stand in line, listen to speeches, submit their paper ballot and watch the tally. But unlike a primary election, where voters can show up and cast their ballot throughout the day, caucus-goers must vote at a specific location and time in the evening. And the reality is no one is certain as this caucus day’s weather is unlike anything Iowans have experienced in recent history.

“This is probably the worst weather you can have for a caucus,” said longtime Iowa Republican strategist Craig Robinson, who estimated that Trump supporters could stay home if they don’t think their support will make much of a difference. “This has the possibility to really hamper turnout. So, I don’t know. Frankly, I can’t remember a caucus that’s been like this.”

Will Rogers, a Des Moines-based veteran of Iowa GOP politics, said he thinks increased barriers to caucusing are likely to help Trump.

“If you look at the kind of person that’s a Donald Trump supporter, if they’re willing to go wait in line for three to four hours to go into an arena, then wait another two hours before he comes out, and they do that in hot, cold, sun, rain, every extreme — those are the kinds of people that are going to come out on caucus night no matter what,” Rogers said.

The state’s GOP party says it expects its 1,600-plus precincts, including churches, community centers, schools and firehouses, to open at 7 p.m. for tens of thousands of Republican voters.

“I don’t think cold keeps people away,” GOP chair Jeff Kauffman said Monday. “Weather could prevent record-breaking turnout into a great turnout, but it remains to be seen. We really don’t have any metrics.”

Iowa GOP spokesman Kush Desai added on Friday that the party was asking caucus-goers to make sure they leave themselves enough time to get to their precincts safely “but ultimately Iowans are well acclimated to Midwest winters and understand what’s at stake for our country.”

As caucus day approaches, organizers say they can adapt if possible.

In Black Hawk County, in northeast Iowa, party officials made sure all of its caucus locations will be set up for people to wait in line indoors.

“I did hear people talk about the stories of waiting outside in a line for half an hour before I could get in the door to get signed in. You can’t have that,” county chair Craig Lohmann said.

But Lohmann and others also say that they won’t make any major changes, as Iowans know how to navigate cold weather.

In Dallas County, west of Des Moines, the county GOP made arrangements to help caucus-goers, especially seniors, walk safely from their cars to the door, said county chair Kelley Koch, adding that Iowans are used to snow and bitter cold.

“You know what I’m telling everybody in Dallas?” she said. “Bundle up. It’s Iowa. Don’t be pansies and wimps and show up that night, because that’s what we do.”

DeSantis deputy campaign manager David Polyansky said the staff was reviewing plans Friday morning to determine what changes they would need to make, but he predicted caucus day turnout would be “pretty robust.”

“I think we’ve all had our own ideas of what Monday is going to look like, and I think most of that’s been thrown out the door,” he said.

Haley spokeswoman Olivia Perez-Cubas said the campaign’s network of county chairs, precinct captains, and volunteers are “in constant communication with caucus-goers, educating our supporters about the caucus process, and making sure they turn out on Monday. We have full confidence in our operation.”

Campaigns have also dealt with flight cancellations and travel delays for those who have yet to arrive in Iowa. South Carolina state Sen. Tom Davis, a Haley supporter, was supposed to fly in Friday but got trapped in Charlotte when his flight was canceled. So he rented the last available car that could go one-way to South Carolina — a luxury SUV that is so “tricked out has got so many bells and whistles” he said he can barely find the volume knob — and he’s driving 818 miles to arrive Saturday.

“What is that movie ‘Planes, Trains and Automobiles’ with John Candy and Steve Martin where they were trying to get home and they had to get on a plane and then they got on a train and they rented a car, and whatever,” he said as he drove. “That’s kind of the way this feels right now. But I’m going to get there.”

While Iowans might be more accustomed to such weather, the major candidates hail from sunnier states. And it shows.

“I don’t even know what negative 15 is,” Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, told a crowd in Ankeny to laughter. “I was complaining it was cold in Iowa in October.”

In her teleconference call that replaced Friday’s town hall in Fort Dodge, Iowa, Haley proclaimed “I definitely know I’m not in South Carolina anymore.”

Meanwhile, DeSantis recounted that he had left his winter coat in Florida when he flew back recently for his State of the State address in Tallahassee, and an “operation” is underway to get it back.

“I haven’t ever experienced negative 15 degrees in my life,” he said. “I’ve got the scarves, I’ve got different things to be able to cover up.”

Ramaswamy, who is from Ohio, has pushed ahead with Friday events: In a video posted in the morning, his black SUV was the only vehicle on a snow-blanketed road aside from a snowplow. He also has added a tele-town hall to his schedule, speaking into white headphones in the back seat of his car as it passed through a whiteout scene.

“George Washington braved the weather to cross the Delaware. Another snow day in Iowa, another day of events for us,” he wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

Asked about the weather deterring voters as she spoke in the post-debate spin room Wednesday, DeSantis endorser and Iowa state Senate President Amy Sinclair pointed to the organized operation to sign up committed caucus-goers and precinct captains as evidence DeSantis will not lose support. But, she advised, the Floridian could benefit from some extra clothing.

“The advice that I’d give him is to put on an extra pair of socks, layer up and get out and do the job you agreed to do,” she said.

Trump, a former New Yorker who now lives in Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, said he expects the cold weather to benefit him because of his base’s loyalty. His son Donald Trump Jr. urged supporters in Urbandale, Iowa, on Thursday to not be deterred by the low temperatures, arguing if he, currently a South Florida resident, could sustain such weather, everyone else should.

“I understand it’s going to be minus four but if I can get my Florida butt back up here — I have gotten soft living in Florida when it comes to being minus four — I can handle it,” he said.

This current Republican Party, which has celebrated toughness and mocked so-called “liberal snowflakes,” has, in some sense, belittled the dangerous weather.

Ramaswamy lambasted Haley for canceling an event earlier this week due to snow and ramped up his own visits.

“If you can’t handle the snow, you can’t handle Xi Jinping,” he posted on X, formerly Twitter.

Less than 24 hours later, Ramaswamy’s SUV got stuck in a snow ditch at 2 a.m. He, his staff and a good Samaritan were able to push it out, and he then canceled stops and altered his schedule.

Hours before the winter storm was expected to start, conservative radio host Steve Deace introduced DeSantis at a town hall in Clive, Iowa, by saying that the caucuses are “not for the casually interested, but for the most committed.”

But veteran Iowa Democratic strategist Emily Parcell warned that now is no time to be flippant about serious weather. Parcell, who worked on Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-Mass.) 2020 campaign when an intern died in a winter car crash, said no event is worth risking a life.

Parcell said campaigns will likely call back their supporters over the weekend to ensure they are still committed to caucus, and she also recommended staffers think about smart ways to ensure access to precincts, such as hiring snowplows, “salting the heck out” of icy sidewalks and carpooling when possible.

“There’s got to be ways to get creative,” she said.

On Friday, as some of DeSantis’s events were canceled over weather, the governor popped into the offices of his campaign and a super PAC supporting him, Never Back Down.

Several dozen volunteers were phone banking at the Never Back Down offices in the Des Moines on Friday, despite rough conditions outside.

Never Back Down staff and volunteers argue their work on the ground for many months has given them a network of supporters who are more connected than other candidates’ networks, and therefore more ready to help each other out in a pinch — say, if someone’s car breaks down.

Super PAC staff hold biweekly calls with precinct captains and give them tasks such as attending an event and collecting commit-to-caucus cards; those captains are also regularly in touch with potential DeSantis caucus-goers in their area. That routine contact, which has ramped up in the final stretch, has reassured the super PAC that their captains are committed and that others will turn out, said a Never Back Down official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe their outlook.

Meanwhile the Trump campaign has volunteer drivers to help get caucus-goers to precincts in key parts of the state, according to a senior campaign adviser.

While forecasts show snow could clear by Monday, wind could complicate efforts to clear roads. Weather reports and road conditions will be closely monitored by caucus organizers, including Dubuque County GOP chair John Darrah, and that might change what recommendations they share.

“I had talked to two different older people that said ‘well, we’re Iowans, we’re Republicans, we’ll go out and do it,’” Darrah said. “But that’s one thing to say it, it’s another thing when it comes to 5:30 Monday evening and it’s dark and it’s five below zero and windy.”

On Thursday, as forecasts worsened, Republican voter Laura Hannam, 58, said the big decision on her mind is who to pick between Vivek and DeSantis. Attending the caucus is a no-brainer, said the dental hygienist from Waukee.

“I’ve not missed a caucus,” she said. “I won’t miss it.”

Her plan is simple: “Just bundle up.”

Hannah Knowles, Isaac Arnsdorf, Dylan Wells, Dan Balz and Ashley Parker contributed to this report.